Abstract
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP AND EXPORT IN G8 COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS
Relationship between gross domestic product and export is discussed in scope of export-based growth hypothesis in economy literature. Particularly, it is recommended to renounce export-based growth strategy in United Nations Trade and Development Report in post 2008 global financial crisis period. In this study, relationship between gross domestic product and export is analyzed in frame of panel cointegration and panel causality tests for 2004-2014 period in line with the purpose of analyzing the size of reciprocity of such recommendation of United Nations in G8 countries. Primarily, stationarity of gross domestic product and export series is analyzed by using Im, Peseran and Shin, Fisher ADF and Fisher PP tests for the analysis. While it is determined that the cointegration relation exists in said counties between two variables as a result of Kao, Pedroni and Johansen’s Fisher panel cointegration tests performed by keeping the first differences of series determined as non-stationary at level, it is seen that this relation is strong effective and strong in world leader counties such as Germany, Canada, United Kingdom and Japan. According to results of Panel Granger Causality test, it is concluded that there is one way causality relation only from GDP to export in long term.
Keywords
Panel unit root test, panel cointegration test, panel Granger causality test.
