Abstract
THE NOW AND FUTURE OF AİR TRANSPORT MARKET: THE COMPARİSON OF SELECTED TURKİSH CİTİES BASED ON TİME SERİES FORECASTİNG MODEL
The air transport industry has experienced significant growth over the past few decades due to the rapid growth of international trade and increases in travel opportunities. Accurate forecasts of the air transportation, which has the right quality to improve competitiveness of Turkiye, is crucial regarding the precautions that will be taken in the future. It is also an essential input for an investment planning.
Air transportation provides some social and economic advantages that other transport modes could. In the field of air transportation forecasting, there are a number of empirical models, which can be classified as judgemental, causal and time series. Time series forecasting is an important area of forecasting in which past observations of the same variable are collected and analyzed to develop a model describing the underlying relationship. The model is then used to extrapolate the time series into the future.
The present study, which is based on Turkiye’s domestic and international aviation statistics of 2007-2014, argues that “time series” models are more compatible while estimating the air passenger and plane parameters for Turkiye and selected cities. In this study, time series including aircraft and passenger can be decomposed of three sub functions such as trend component, seasonal component, and irregularity component. So, a functional for air transportation time series can be defined as the sum of a trend (f_t), a seasonal (f_s), and an irregularity (f_ir) functions and second-degree polynomial function is going to be tried for the correct form for forecasting.
Keywords
Turkish air transport market, time series, forecasting.
