Abstract
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY (2003-2017): GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS
Turkey's economy inflation comes at the beginning of the most important and the biggest problem the solution sought since the 1970s. When assessed in terms of economic knowledge, the relationship between economic growth and inflation has been addressed at different times and in different forms, but no lasting result has been achieved. In this context, different views have emerged over time regarding the nature of the relationship between inflation and economic growth. In particular, the view that inflation affects economic growth positively until 1980s is the dominant opinion, when the results of the studies made in recent years are evaluated, most economists today think inflation affects economic growth adversely (Karaca, 2003: 247). However, today's accepted general view is that inflation affects growth in the medium and long term negatively. In this context, Turkey in nearly twenty years of investment experience of high and as a result, the uncertainties associated with fluctuating inflation and can be associated with negative effects on economic growth. Increasing the growth potential of the economy depends on the elimination of middle and long-term uncertainties created by high and fluctuating inflation. The main aim of this study is to determine the relationship between inflation and economic growth. İn the study, 2003: Q1 - 2017: Working with three monthly data with 60 observation values covering Q4 period. These data are used as inflation variable (TFP) and economic growth variable (GDP) data. Inflation and economic growth variables were obtained from CBRT-EVDS. According to the findings obtained without working; inflation affects economic growth negatively. According to Granger causality analysis results; While there was no causality relation to TUFE's GDP, there was a causality relationship from GDP to TUFE. In this case it is shown that the model of the GDP as an independent variable is economically meaningful.
Keywords
Key words: Inflation, Economic Growth, Unit Root Test, Granger Causality Test.
